Left within 10 minutes
Their first session ended less than 10 minutes after they joined.
-39.3 pp 7-day return against everyone else
Autopilot demo on sample data
Why new players on Demo network leave in their first session, what to change, and which join address is slipping.
New players1,512
First joined Sep 9 to Oct 9
Players whose first join fell in the window. Each has had 7 days to come back.7-day return38.0%
574 of 1,512 came back
Share of those new players with a qualifying session in the 7 days after their first join.Biggest drop-off37.7%
Left within 10 minutes
The drop-off group holding the largest share of the new players it could judge.Fixes to look at3
1 join address alert in the last 7 days
Suggested fixes: one per drop-off group or join address that passed the rule.Drop-off
When new players leave in their first session.
Where new players drop off
First sessions of new players who first joined Sep 9 to Oct 9, so each had 7 days to come back. A player can sit in more than one group.
All new players
Never left spawn
Stayed within 16 blocks of where they started, or never left the spawn region, and made no move off the hub server in their first session. Older connectors cannot say how far, so there it means no advancement.
The hub is lobby, the lobby server set below.
-24.6 pp 7-day return against everyone else
Quit after dying
Died in their first session and quit within 5 minutes of that death.
-15.2 pp 7-day return against everyone else
Kicked
Kicked in their first session for being idle or by a plugin. Ban and whitelist kicks are left out.
-17.8 pp 7-day return against everyone else
By join address
| Join address | New players | Left within 10 minutes | Never left spawn | Quit after dying | Kicked |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| list.example.net | 498 | 46.1%11.2% came back, 44.1% of the rest | 18.9%14.0% came back, 32.9% of the rest | 10.0%20.8% came back, 33.0% of the rest | 4.1%Not enough players yet |
| play.example.net | 331 | 30.1%17.5% came back, 58.2% of the rest | 12.0%23.1% came back, 49.1% of the rest | 8.2%Not enough players yet | 3.1%Not enough players yet |
| tiktok.example.net | 262 | 42.0%12.1% came back, 50.0% of the rest | 17.1%15.9% came back, 40.2% of the rest | 9.1%Not enough players yet | 3.5%Not enough players yet |
| yt.example.net | 149 | 24.1%22.9% came back, 66.4% of the rest | 10.2%Not enough players yet | 6.9%Not enough players yet | 2.0%Not enough players yet |
| Discord | 118 | 27.8%18.8% came back, 61.4% of the rest | 11.2%Not enough players yet | 7.9%Not enough players yet | 2.6%Not enough players yet |
Join addresses
Which address players use is slipping.
Join address alerts
Each join address against its own previous 4 weeks, checked once a day. A drop that passes the rule is logged here and posted to Discord.
This week against the 4 before
7-day return of players who first joined Oct 2 to Oct 9, against Sep 4 to Oct 2.
| Join address | This week | 4 weeks before | Change | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| tiktok.example.net | 23.9% of 88 | 45.0% of 402 | -21.2 pp | Dropped |
| list.example.net | 39.5% of 124 | 41.4% of 498 | -1.8 pp | Steady |
| play.example.net | 53.2% of 79 | 53.8% of 301 | -0.7 pp | Steady |
| yt.example.net | 65.9% of 41 | 64.4% of 160 | +1.5 pp | Steady |
| Discord | 54.5% of 22 | 53.7% of 95 | Too few players | Not enough players yet |
Alert log
| Join address | Day | That week | 4 weeks before | Drop | Discord |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| tiktok.example.net | Oct 15, 2026 | 23.9% of 88 | 45.0% of 402 | -21.2 pp | Posted |
| list.example.net | Sep 27, 2026 | 29.0% of 131 | 41.8% of 512 | -12.8 pp | Posted |
An alert fires when the 7-day return of players from one join address falls at least 5 points under its own previous 4 weeks, each side holds 30 players, and a two-proportion z test puts the drop at p under 0.05. At most one alert per address a week. Checked once a day.
Fixes
What to change first, from the two groups above.
Suggested fixes
One per pattern that passed the rule, with the numbers behind it. Rule based and worded in advance.
Shorten the tutorial or the walk from spawn
Pattern: Left within 10 minutes
37.7% of judged new players left within 10 minutes (554 players of 1,471). 13.7% of them came back within 7 days, against 53.0% of the rest. Read from first sessions and 7-day return.
Make the way out of spawn obvious
Pattern: Never left spawn
15.3% of judged new players never left spawn (228 players of 1,490). 18.4% of them came back within 7 days, against 43.0% of the rest. Read from first sessions and 7-day return.
Check what changed on tiktok.example.net: its server or its ad
Pattern: Join address return fell
23.9% of 88 players who first joined on tiktok.example.net last week came back within 7 days, against 45.0% of 402 players in the 4 weeks before. Read from first joins by address and 7-day return.
Rules
How Autopilot judges a drop and where it tells you.
Autopilot settings
Where join address alerts are posted, and which server counts as spawn.
Posting to DiscordDocs
- Post alerts to Discord
- On
- Discord webhook
- Saved, webhook ending 6152
- Lobby server
- lobby
7-day return is the rule Growth and Overview use: a later qualifying session within 7 days of the first join. Groups under 30 players read not enough players yet.
Sample data